California
clear sky
4.2 ° C
6.5 °
2.8 °
66 %
0kmh
0 %
Wed
14 °
Thu
12 °
Fri
14 °
Sat
12 °
Sun
16 °
California
clear sky
4.2 ° C
6.5 °
2.8 °
66 %
0kmh
0 %
Wed
14 °
Thu
12 °
Fri
14 °
Sat
12 °
Sun
16 °
Wednesday, November 23, 2022

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Dramatic swing to warm weather likely as El Nino likely next year


Weatherzone is predicting Australia could flip from our current wet La Nina weather system to the opposite El Nino system next year, signaling a dramatic shift to hotter, drier conditions.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) defines El Nino as a sustained period of warming including reduced rainfall, warmer temperatures, reduced tropical cyclone numbers, increased fire danger and decreased alpine snow depths.

“An El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become substantially warmer than average,” BoM said on their website.

Weatherzone’s computer-based El Niño-Southern Oscillation predicts La Nino probability for 2023. (Weatherzone)

Weatherzone models suggest a shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures to a likely El Nino weather event from April 2023.

“The graph shows that La Niña has a 90 percent likelihood of remaining in place over the next three months,” Weatherzone said.

“Further into the future, this outlook suggests that El Niño becomes the most likely state for the Pacific Ocean late in the Southern Hemisphere’s winter in 2023.

Crowds gather at Bondi Beach  in Sydney.
Crowds gather at Bondi Beach on a warm day in Sydney. (Getty)

“This is the first time in around three years that the monthly CPC/IRI outlook has favoured El Niño as the most likely category in the Pacific Ocean.”

The outlook is based on US forecasting methods, which are different to Australia’s BoM.

BoM has previously predicted La Nina would end in January or February this year.

Weatherzone warns predictions this far into the future should be treated with “some caution”.

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