Deena Ghazarian had solely been in enterprise for a yr when the commerce insurance policies of President Donald Trump’s first time period of workplace despatched her firm right into a tailspin.

It was 2019 and her California-based agency, Austere, had simply agreed to produce a number of massive US retailers with its high-end audio and video equipment which might be largely manufactured in China.

Then Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on China, and in a single day Deena discovered herself paying a 25% surcharge on each cable and element she imported – up from zero beforehand.

She was compelled to soak up the prices and for some time thought she would go bust.

“I actually thought I’m going to start out and finish a enterprise in lower than a yr,” she says. “I had spent all this time, cash and energy, and to have one thing like this blindside you was surprising.”

The agency pulled by, however like quite a few different US companies it now finds itself in a strikingly related scenario.

Since returning to workplace in January, Mr Trump has raised tariffs on all items imported from China by 20%, and put taxes of 25% on Canadian and Mexican merchandise, solely to delay a few of them till April.

The president says he desires to pressure these international locations to do extra to cease flows of unlawful medication and migrants into America, to convey extra manufacturing again to the US, and to handle what he sees as unfair commerce imbalances.

However the duties are a lot broader in scope than final time, once they have been phased in regularly and lots of merchandise have been granted exemptions.

Items like smartphones, desktop computer systems and tablets are actually incurring tariffs for the primary time, whereas taxes on others have climbed larger.

“US importers should pay these taxes not the exporters,” says Ed Brzytwa, vice chairman of worldwide commerce on the Shopper Know-how Affiliation (CTA), a North American commerce physique that represents greater than 1,200 tech companies.

“It is American companies and customers who will undergo.”

Companies like Ms Ghazarian’s are notably uncovered. China continues to be the primary provider of digital merchandise to the US, with imports totalling $146bn (£112bn) in 2023, according to official data.

In the meantime, 87% of US online game console imports got here from China that yr, 78% of smartphones, 79% of laptops and tablets, and two-thirds of screens, says the CTA.

Whereas many American corporations like Austere have diversified their provide chains away from China since Mr Trump’s first time period, international locations resembling Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam nonetheless don’t provide the identical manufacturing capabilities and experience.

On the similar time, the US president is now focusing on Mexico – one other main electronics provider. And whereas home manufacturing within the US has elevated, partly attributable to tariffs, it’s nonetheless restricted by larger prices and stricter laws.

“Sure, Apple now makes some iPhones in India and [the Taiwanese chipmaker] TSMC has been diversifying to Arizona,” says Mary Pretty, a senior fellow on the Peterson Institute in Washington DC.

“However China continues to be a large a part of the provision chain. Relationships with new suppliers take time to develop, they’re pricey to develop.”

Analysis means that corporations cross on a big proportion of the prices of tariffs by placing up costs. Earlier this month Corie Barry, boss of US electronics retailer Finest Purchase, mentioned that the “the overwhelming majority” of the brand new tariffs will “in all probability be handed on to the buyer” as a result of distributors within the business have such small margins.

In February, Taiwanese agency Acer mentioned the worth of its laptops would doubtless rise by 10% primarily based on the ten% duties in place on China on the time, whereas US group HP has warned its earnings could be decrease due to the tariffs.

Ms Ghazarian says she might have to boost her costs this yr, however worries it may backfire. “There’s a value level the place the client is glad with the worth of products supplied.

“The second I shift above that I begin to lose prospects. Excessive inflation has squeezed Individuals.”

Throughout Mr Trump’s first time period, corporations resembling Apple efficiently secured exemptions for merchandise, and we might but see carve-outs.

Insiders have additionally prompt Mr Trump views tariffs as a negotiating tactic and will ease them if he wins concessions, as he did when China agreed to purchase extra American items in a deal reached in 2020.

Fears of a US economic slowdown may additionally make him change course.

In the intervening time, although, tensions look prone to escalate. China, Mexico and Canada have vowed to retaliate in opposition to any US duties imposed on them, and this week Mr Trump threatened to double tariffs on Canadian metal and aluminium solely to row again on the final minute.

He plans to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on the remainder of the world quickly, and threatened tariff will increase of as much as 60% on Chinese language items whereas on the marketing campaign path.

There’s a danger this might drive up the worth of tech items world wide if China is compelled to relocate manufacturing to international locations the place labour prices are larger. Furthermore, international locations might hit again with tariffs on imported US expertise.

Ms Ghazarian says she is fearful however at the very least she’s ready this time. Like many different US business-owners she bulk-ordered further stock earlier than Mr Trump took workplace, and is storing it in her east coast warehouse.

She hopes that may get the corporate by the subsequent yr till it could “pivot” once more.

“Which may imply discovering a more cost effective strategy to produce the product or doing one thing fully completely different. It is irritating I’ve to give attention to survival reasonably than rising my enterprise.”