Market Outlook: India-US Commerce Deal, Q1 FY26 Earnings Key Drivers This Week


Mumbai: After witnessing a part of revenue reserving final week, contemplating the broader indices at present buying and selling at elevated ranges, the market individuals will carefully look ahead to indicators of earnings catch-up from upcoming Q1 — beginning subsequent week — together with the result of the interim Indian-US commerce deal earlier than the July 9 deadline, analysts mentioned on Sunday.  Moreover, the OPEC+ assembly scheduled for this weekend might affect international oil costs.

“On the macroeconomic entrance, the broader economic system stands to learn from beneficial situations equivalent to easing inflation and declining rates of interest. A constructive final result from the US-India commerce negotiations might additional raise market sentiment, notably benefiting trade-sensitive sectors like IT, pharma, and auto,” mentioned Vinod Nair, Head of Analysis, Geojit Investments Restricted.

Markets ended final week on a constructive observe regardless of a largely rangebound buying and selling atmosphere. The Nifty closed at 25,461, up 55.7 factors, whereas the Sensex added 193 factors to finish at 83,432. The broader market noticed help from key sectors like banking, pharma, IT, realty, oil and fuel, and media, which posted positive factors between 0.4 per cent and 1 per cent. Nonetheless, metals, telecom, and auto shares underperformed, limiting the general upside.

“Investor sentiment stays cautiously optimistic forward of the anticipated US-India commerce settlement, with the tariff deadline drawing nearer. A beneficial final result from the talks might act as a serious set off for the subsequent part of the rally, particularly given the current lack of directional momentum. This occasion is being carefully tracked by institutional individuals and will decide the near-term development,” based on a observe by Alternative Broking.

As per Fibonacci extension, the subsequent main upside targets are seen at 27,300 and 28,600. On the draw back, key helps are positioned at 25,000 and 24,500, the place shopping for curiosity is prone to emerge, it added.

In the meantime, the Financial institution Nifty index closed at 57,031.90 final week, registering a 0.72 per cent decline from the earlier week’s shut. The weekly chart signifies rejection at larger ranges; nonetheless, the index has managed to carry above the essential 57,000 mark. The promoting strain at larger ranges suggests a possible pause within the ongoing uptrend, indicating a probable sideways part within the close to time period, mentioned the Alternative Broking observe.

For the continuing expiry, put choices present the very best focus close to the 57,000 and 56,500 strikes, marking these as key help ranges. Conversely, important open curiosity in name choices at 57,000 and 57,500 signifies potential resistance, suggesting a probable buying and selling vary of 56,500–57,500 within the upcoming classes, mentioned analysts.

FIIs have turned cautious amid elevated market valuations and combined international cues, whereas DIIs proceed to supply help, serving to stabilise sentiment.

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