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In line with the practically 900-page-long EIA report commissioned by the Andaman and Nicobar Islands Built-in Improvement Company and executed by a non-public marketing consultant, Vimta Labs, the likelihood of a mega earthquake, such because the earthquake of 9.2 magnitude that led to the 2004 tragedy, was “low”.
The EIA examine, whereas acknowledging the area’s proximity and susceptibility to large earthquakes, primarily attracts on a 2019 examine by scientists of the Indian Institute of Know-how-Kanpur stating that the “return interval”, a time period for the chance of a similar-sized earthquake reoccurring, is 420–750 years for mega-earthquakes (magnitude of 9 or extra). The return interval is a shorter 80-120 years for large-magnitude earthquakes (>7.5).
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The IIT-Kanpur report had analysed sediments from the Badabalu seashore in South Andaman and revealed proof of no less than seven giant tsunami occasions within the final 8,000 years within the area. The report states: “Andaman Section has sufficient gathered pressure to set off a mega tsunamigenic subduction zone earthquake in close to future and that there was a 2,000-year hole within the area’s sediment historical past added uncertainty to the prediction of future earthquakes.” This bit doesn’t seem within the EIA examine.
Chatting with The Hindu, Professor Javed Malik, the scientist who led the IIT-Kanpur examine, mentioned whereas their examine did hint the historical past of main tsunamis, planners of any main infrastructure mission within the Nicobar Islands ought to ideally conduct a “site-specific examine”. This was as a result of an earthquake, such because the one in 2004 that was centred in Indonesia’s Banda Aceh, may play out otherwise if the origin level was the Nicobar Islands. The Andaman-Sumatra fault line was recognized to be susceptible to large earthquakes and there was nonetheless inadequate data concerning what stretches alongside this line had been more likely to rupture.
He mentioned in 2020, in a gathering with authorities officers, he had identified that research just like these performed in Andaman should be carried out in Automotive Nicobar and Campbell areas of Nicobar, however he was nonetheless ready to listen to on it. “Not solely can we get perception into historic earthquakes however we will estimate inundation patterns and this can assist plan infrastructure tasks,” he added.
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Different scientists counsel that there are a number of sources of tsunamigenic-earthquakes which are unknown.
C.P. Rajendran, geo-scientist and professor on the Nationwide Institute of Superior Research, Bengaluru, mentioned that his personal research over time and rising research have proven that whereas the Banda Aceh occasion could have launched a certain quantity of pent-up power, there have been a number of different “parallel rupture strains south of the Andamans [and towards Nicobar] whose pent-up power and historical past had been unknown”. “So as to add to that, earthquake recurrence is a non-linear course of. You could possibly have centuries with none mega-quake after which abruptly a large one. There are native fault strains within the Nice Nicobar Island [GNI] in addition to adjustments in land ranges prior to an enormous earthquake. That is an especially geo-dynamic space and main infrastructure tasks listed here are notably susceptible,” he advised The Hindu. “It’s higher to keep away from such an space for a port or a container terminal.”
A senior scientist within the Ministry of Earth Sciences acknowledged that whereas no particular web site research within the Nicobar Islands had been commissioned for the mission, it might be unattainable to forecast when a large earthquake was possible and a “calculated danger” needed to be taken in executing the mission. “Relying on the character of buildings and infrastructure, design codes can be integrated however we will by no means say when the subsequent main quake or tsunami will happen. There’s a lot that’s unknown,” the scientist mentioned.
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The GNIP envisages a trans-shipment port, a world airport, township improvement, and a 450 Megavolt-Amperes (MVA) gasoline and solar-based energy plant within the GNI. Although accorded an atmosphere and preliminary forest clearance by the Centre, considerations in regards to the potential lack of biodiversity, tree-felling, and impression on resident tribes prompted the Nationwide Inexperienced Tribunal to order a evaluate of the environmental features of the mission.
The islands had been among the many worst affected areas throughout the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami-earthquake that claimed no less than 1,500 lives. Atleast 10,000 Indians perished within the tsunami.
The area, which comes below the best seismological class of 5, is susceptible to earthquakes because it has the Indian plate diving beneath the Burmese Microplate alongside the Andaman Trench in a course of referred to as “Subduction.”
Printed – July 06, 2025 09:01 pm IST
