The Information Level printed on Wednesday mentioned intimately the spoiler impact created by Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) within the 2020 Bihar Meeting election and examined the potential of it influencing the upcoming 2025 polls as nicely. This impact was one of many key causes the 2020 election turned out to be a intently fought contest between the BJP-led Nationwide Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the RJD-led mahagatbandhan (grand alliance).

At this time, we’ll look at one other main purpose behind the shut contest in 2020—the Congress get together’s poor efficiency—and assess whether or not this imbalance throughout the alliance may affect the end result of the 2025 polls.

In 2020, Congress recorded a contested vote share of 32.9%, the bottom amongst main mahagatbandhan alliance companions, as proven in Desk under.

As compared, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) secured 39%, CPI 33.3%, CPI(M) 37.6%, and CPI(ML)(L) 41.4%. Contested vote share refers back to the share of votes a celebration receives within the seats it fought. Within the 2015 election, Congress recorded a contested vote share of 39.5%.

Desk 2 exhibits the strike charge of events, calculated by dividing the variety of seats received by the overall seats contested. In 2020, Congress had a strike charge of 27.1%, as soon as once more the bottom among the many mahagatbandhan alliance companions.

As compared, the RJD recorded 52.1%, CPI 33.3%, CPI(M) 50%, and CPI(ML)(L) 63.1%. In truth, Congress’s strike charge that yr was decrease than that of the foremost constituents of the NDA as nicely.

Within the 2015 election, Congress’s strike charge was a lot increased at 65.9%. Whereas the strike charges of the RJD and JD(U) additionally declined between 2015 and 2020, the steepest drop was seen in Congress’s efficiency.

The under desk presents the share of seats received by events with a victory margin of lower than 5% of votes. As an example, in 2020, Congress received 52.6% of its seats with a margin under 5%, the very best such proportion among the many mahagatbandhan alliance companions. Whereas the primary two tables point out that Congress is dropping extra seats and securing considerably decrease vote shares than its companions, the under desk exhibits that even within the seats it received in 2020, greater than half had been shut contests.

Taken collectively, these three knowledge factors present that Congress stays the weaker hyperlink within the alliance, which partly explains why it’s fielding fewer candidates in 2025 in comparison with 2020. Nonetheless, for the reason that majority of the seats Congress is contesting in 2025 are the identical as these it contested and misplaced in 2020, reversing its fortunes might be a difficult activity.

Additional, in 2020, Congress had a poor strike charge of solely 18.9% in direct contests in opposition to the BJP, and in 2025, the 2 events are set to face one another in 31 seats. Towards the JD(U), Congress had a greater strike charge of 35.7% in 2020, and in 2025 they’ll compete in opposition to one another in 24 seats , as proven within the desk under. Nonetheless, Congress’s increased strike charge in opposition to the JD(U) can also be attributed to the Lok Janshakti Social gathering (LJP) splitting votes and hurting JD(U)’s possibilities in lots of seats.

Congress’s total improved efficiency in 2025, notably in seats contested in opposition to the BJP, might be an important issue for the mahagatbandhan.

To complicate issues additional, Congress faces pleasant contests in 5 seats in opposition to the RJD, in 4 seats in opposition to the Left events, and in a single seat in opposition to a smaller accomplice, the Indian Inclusive Social gathering. If 2025 is one other shut contest, these seats with pleasant fights may come underneath scrutiny, particularly if they’re misplaced, as proven within the desk under.

Within the tables, MGB: Mahagatbandhan alliance; NDA; Nationwide Democratic Aliiance; IIP: Inclusive India Social gathering; VIP: Vikassheel Insaan Social gathering. Left events talked about embody Communist Social gathering of India: (CPI), Communist Social gathering of India (Marxist): CP|(M), and Communist Social gathering of India (Marxist-Leninist) (Liberation): CPI(ML)(L). Janshakti Janta Dal (JJD) which is with the MGB alliance has not been included for the evaluation.

The information for the charts had been sourced from the Election Fee of India and Lok Dhaba.

vignesh.r@thehindu.co.in, sambavi.p@thehindu.co.in

Printed – November 07, 2025 07:00 am IST